Yes and no.

First off, China is diminishing subsidies for wind and solar, but they are diminishing them substantially less than the United States, for example, is. Without having dug too deep, the differences appear to be more in line with expected reductions to match reductions in costs, so it shouldn’t impact them too much.

Second, it appears based on what I’ve seen that China is significantly increasing its targets for wind and solar for 2030, which would contradict the story many western media outlets are asserting. I haven’t seen a recent update on this, but that’s the latest I had.

Third, China has been consistently shutting its worst coal mines and worst coal generation plants and building lower emissions, less polluting ones for the past 5–6 years. It’s unclear to me at present how much of the headlines are just business as usual for a global industrial power than needs lots of electricity from multiple sources, and how much is actually a shift in balance toward coal.

Fourth, the assessments appear to be tying increases in coal to a response to reductions in GDP growth, which can be argued both ways.

Finally, China is always somewhat opaque except and frequently even in retrospect to western analysts. What it’s specifically doing today may surprise us all in five years because few are paying attention to the bigger picture of its actions. I remain hopeful, but as with Doug Saunder’s column from today pointing out that while China may have changed to be fundamentally democratic that doesn’t mean it won’t change to something else, I am always aware that I’m peering through a pinhole at a foreign culture and governance system.