My track record is good at this kind of analysis, so I'm comfortable that at least I am competent to predict this future.

And if everyone was ignoring the billionaires' toys, I wouldn't care. But what Gates and BEV invest in get inordinate coverage and are treated much more seriously, with much more VC money and contracts following along. It becomes a self fulfilling prophecy that a bad technology ends up wasting a lot more money than just Gates'.